Jerry shares (002353): The first quarter report has a slightly higher-than-expected long-term performance expectation and a high degree of certainty.

Jerry shares (002353): The first quarter report has a slightly higher-than-expected long-term performance expectation and a high degree of certainty.

Event: The company announced the first quarter of 2019 performance 杭州桑拿forecast, and it is expected to realize the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies1.

05-1.

2.2 billion, an annual increase of 210% -260%.

  Opinion: The company’s first quarterly report is expected to exceed the growth rate, and slightly exceeds our expectation of a growth rate of about 200%. Essentially, 1) Affected by exchange losses, the financial expense of 18Q1 was about 46 million, resulting in a reduction in the net profit base;The 19Q1 exchange rate is estimated to have yielded slightly.

Excluding the impact of foreign exchange, it is estimated that the net profit of 19Q1 exceeded the growth rate of about 40-70%.

2) The domestic food service market has a strong demand. The company’s product line orders for drilling and completion equipment, maintenance and renovation, and accessories sales, generator technical services and other products continue to grow and maintain high profitability.

  In 2019, the domestic oil and gas exploration and development investment is highly certain.

According to the capital expansion disclosed in the annual report of the three barrels of oil, the capital expansion of the three barrels of oil upstream exploration and development in 2018 totaled 3004 trillion, with an increase of 23%, and the completion of the initial plan was 103%, which is the first over-completed plan since 2013; 2019The annual capital expenditure plan for three barrels of oil exploration and development will increase by about 25% per year, the highest growth rate in the past 8 years, and the high prosperity of the industry will continue.

  The company’s orders continued to grow rapidly, laying a foundation for long-term performance.

In 2018, the company’s bid for the fracturing equipment of PetroChina is expected to be partially delivered in 19Q1, and the rest should be fully delivered in 19H1; the company’s 19Q1 supplementary orders still maintain a high growth rate.

As a leading company in domestic drilling and completion equipment, the company will continue to focus on benefiting from domestic oil and gas investment growth.

At the same time, with the further opening of the domestic oil service market to private enterprises and the continuous increase in workload, the company’s domestic oil service business is also expected to achieve steady improvement.

High domestic demand is expected to be the main driving force to support the company’s 2019 performance.

  苏州夜网论坛 Profit forecast and investment recommendations: We are optimistic about the company’s performance in this upward channel in 2018-2020, optimistic about the company’s performance and high growth potential. Based on the current industry hot situation and oil service prices, we have raised our company’s profit forecast.The EPS for 2018-2020 are 0.

64 yuan, 0.

99 yuan and 1.

18 yuan, corresponding to PE is 37 times, 24 times and 20 times, maintaining the “buy” level.

  Risk Warning: International crude oil prices have fallen sharply, and the company’s overseas business orders have fallen short of expected risks.